How the hold calculator works
Hold is the share of all money staked on a market that a bookmaker expects to keep. It is the margin seen from the bookmaker's side, and a quick way to compare how expensive a market is to bet into.
- Convert each price in the market to an implied probability and add them.
- The payout rate is 1 divided by that total.
- Hold is 1 minus the payout rate, as a percentage of stakes.
Worked example
A three-way market at 1.91, 1.91 and 3.50.
- Implied 52.4% + 52.4% + 28.6% = 133.3%.
- Payout rate 75%; hold 25%.
That is a badly priced market. A three-way football market at a sharp book holds 2% to 4%.
Questions
- How is hold different from vig?
- Vig is the overround, the sum of implied probabilities above 100%. Hold divides that by the total, so it expresses the same margin as a share of stakes. A 4.7% overround is a 4.5% hold.
- What is a normal hold?
- Two-way markets at sharp books hold 2% to 3%; recreational books 5% to 7%. Player props and futures are often 10% or more.
- Does hold tell me which side to bet?
- No. It tells you how much the market costs on average. Which side is value depends on the true probabilities, which hold does not reveal.
